Spring Thoughts

As the deadline to enter the draft for underclassmen nears, next year’s rosters are beginning to take shape in the ACC. There haven’t been too many surprises with players declaring. Most expected Brandan Wright to declare as he’s been labeled a lottery pick since his first keg stand in Chapel Hill. Luckily for UNC, the rest of their talented veterans return and they should be just as deep and successful next season as they were this year. Unless of course Roy Williams refuses to call a timeout as his players choke away another NCAA tournament game.

As for the other talented freshman small forward in the ACC, Georgia Tech’s Thaddeus Young, his future is probably dependent on his predraft workouts with lottery teams. He could likely use another year of college to develop his game and make himself some more money in his first contract. Given the current rookie contract situation in the NBA, a 1^st round draft pick can quickly bust and be out of the league after two years, without the financial security to last into a young man’s 30s, let alone his entire life.

I’m guessing that most Tech fans not so secretly hope that Young can’t buy a jumpshot while inept NBA GMs look on during his workouts. However, given the lack of eye for talent that currently plagues various NBA front offices these days, Young may have to do far worse to take himself out of early 1^st round consideration.

Now obviously Boston College wasn’t too worried about John Oates and Tyrelle Blair testing the NBA waters. Had Tyrese Rice been so inclined, he may just have proved himself against the competition at the draft camps and ended up a 2^nd round pick, but he’ll be back at the Heights next season.

Where BC gets hurt, of course, are the losses of Sean Marshall and Jared Dudley to graduation (one thing nice about being a BC fan is the confidence you have in saying we lost a player to graduation, because he probably did in fact graduate). Without Marshall and Dudley’s production next year, BC seems to be the ACC team most likely to suffer a down year after their success the past few seasons.

Unfortunately, BC also loses guard Marquez Haynes to transfer. Depending who you talk to, this might be addition by subtraction or just plain subtraction for the Eagles. But given BC’s depth being that of the kiddy pool at the YMCA, the loss of Haynes hurts. Marquez was arguably the best athlete on the team last year and could hit a big outside shot now and then. He stood to be a big part of the rotation next year.

Let’s hope that Haynes is the last of the contributing players to transfer in the Skinner era. In a disturbing trend, many of Al’s recruits have left after one or two seasons, some being contributors like Haynes and Steve Hailey, and others like Gordon Watt ending up at other Division 1 schools and playing starter’s minutes.

I like Al as a coach for many reasons. There’s no way in hell he’s text messaging recruits 1000 times like Houston Nutt, and I can’t picture Al staking out high school gymnasiums all with the hope of making eye contact with a prospect during one of the NCAA sanctioned ‘no speaking’ periods. It’s more likely that Skinner has no idea what text messaging is and he spends the off-season tending to a vegetable garden. But of the guys that do end up on the BC campus, there seems to be a high percentage of them that transfer out and end up having a nice career elsewhere.

I’d like to be able to philosophize about how BC fares next season based on their incoming recruits, but it’s borderline impossible given their recent history of freshman. Who knew that Jared Dudley would end up ACC Player of the Year? For all the hype of this year’s class with big man Josh Southern, and swingman Rakim Sanders coming to campus, who really knows how well they’ll play or if they’ll even make it through 3 years on the team? Without ever having seen these guys play, I’m clueless about their games and how they’ll fit in with Rice. Southern and Sanders may be the first 4-star recruits that Skinner has gotten to commit to BC, but those rating are more often than not a meaningless label and have little to do with a player’s collegiate success. That being said, we all pay attention to which players have accepted a scholarship, and I’ve got my hopes up that this year’s class will help to continue BC’s basketball success.

2007 Basketball Afterthoughts

I had an entire column written about the performances of Corey Brewer, Greg Oden, and the legacy of the Florida team, but before I could get to posting it, all of my ideas have been beaten to death. Silly me for thinking I was the only one blown away by Brewer's all-around game during the Final Four, and if you were to construct the perfect college starting 5, Florida would come pretty damn close. I guess that's the whole point of this blogging thing anyway, get your ideas posted before anyone else, otherwise you're considered old news and a hack. I'm probably a hack, but I don't want to be considered old news. I'm not hardened enough just yet. A few more years of scotch under a bedside lamp at 3 in the morning and I'll be headed there. It's something to thrive for.

Anyway, here's what I had to say. I like to consider that my columns are like cornbread. They're really good, but you just haven't had much of it.

I kept trying to figure out who the most important Gator was last night. I couldn’t figure it out. And there’s a reason why – the Gators had the perfect college team the last two years.

I’m willing to go to bat for Florida as one of the best college teams in recent memory. Their best 6 this year could matchup with any best 6 in the past 10-15 years. Keep in mind when you mention the ’93 Carolina team as a great champion that their center was Eric Montross, and that for all of the hype given to the talent on the Heels two years ago, only one of their guys has made an impact in the NBA. With a power forward/center rotation of Noah, Horford, and Chris Richard, Florida was going to be unmatched against any team down low. Even against Greg Oden, who almost single-handedly fouled out the entire Gator frontline (with some help from the refs), the depth that Florida had down low eventually wore Oden out. Billy Donovan intelligently used Richard on Oden for most of the game, allowing Horford to clean the glass on the defensive end and get the Gators going to the offensive end in a hurry.

In Brewer, they had a guy 6’9” small forward, who on Saturday, shut down he pac-10 player of the year Arron Afflalo for the second year in a row. It would be too easy to chalk up Brewer’s performance to his athleticism and height. He consistently fought through tough screens away from the ball to deny Afflalo the pass, and if the UCLA shooting guard did get the ball, Brewer was right in his face the minute he looked for a shot. It was Brewer’s lockdown defense that was the key to an easy win for Florida.

48 hours later, Brewer would outdo himself. It’s safe to say that no other player in the country has the ability to Mike Conley’s pocket clean in the open court and block Greg Oden’s shot at the peak of its height in the same game. Brewer has the same weakside shot-blocking ability that Tyrus Thomas used to propel himself to a lottery pick last year. Add to that his ability to defend the ball on the perimeter, and Brewer is a menace for the opposing team while he’s on the court.

In Lee Humphrey, the Gators have the NCAA record holder for 3s in tournament play. Having to be accounted for at all times while he floats around the perimeter, Humphrey gives Florida that essential element of a great college team – the deadeye outside shooter. Think Tony Delk of the championship Kentucky team, or flash in the pan Donald Williams, whose shooting lead UNC to the 1993 championship. With Humphrey’s shooting, Brewer’s all-around game, and Horford and Noah inside, there was no way that Gator opponents this season could focus on any one player.

That’s important. Take last night’s game. It was obvious last night that Billy Donovan’s strategy was to go at Oden and make the other Buckeyes beat him. While Oden was outstanding, his teammates, outside of Conley, weren’t able to step up and give Ohio State the scoring punch it needed. Ron Lewis gave them a little bit, but most of his buckets came late in the game after Florida had built a comfortable cushion.

When it comes to success in the pros, Horford is the guy that most confuses me. I would like to thank his father Tito for providing the best moment by a parent over the weekend. Tito’s reaction to a great play on Saturday night after he saw himself on a jumbotron was the most orchestrated moment of the weekend next to Billy Donovan’s awful pregame speech.

Horford’s rebounding and scoring last night compensated for Noah’s lack of output due to foul trouble and was essential to the win. He surprised me with his ability to hit the 15-footer when he was open, but his post-moves were a little too plodding and methodical. He takes a couple dribbles to set his move up, and looks to use his strength to get off a jump hook, but he doesn’t seem to move quickly enough laterally on offense or defense. I used to be a big Horford supporter and thought he might be a better pro than Noah because of his size, but I think he won’t be able to play quickly enough to be successful in the NBA. Speed kills in the current NBA, and Noah and Brewer have been blessed with footspeed and the mentality to make quick decisions. In that respect, I think Horford is at a disadvantage.

Breaking Down the Final Four - UCLA and Florida

Talk to any casual college basketball fan this week, and they’ll either annoyingly brag that they predicted the Final Four correctly or tell you that the games should be really good this weekend. Well, the masses may have chosen the four remaining teams correctly, but their prediction about the games this weekend could be wrong.

Most fans seem to have a short-term memory when it comes to getting all excited about this weekend’s games. Lest we forget, UCLA and Florida played each other last year and the Gators creamed the Bruins. The game was over after about a dozen possessions and before the pizza arrived at my apartment. As if eating an entire large pie with extra cheese wasn’t depressing enough, I had to do it while watching a blowout.

This year, the Gators return the same starting five while UCLA lost their starting center and point guard from last year to the NBA. It isn’t all bad. In my opinion, UCLA got addition by subtraction with point guard Jordan Farmar’s departure. He struck me as a little too shoot-first and ill-fitted to the team structure on coach Ben Howland’s Bruins. Farmar’s back-up from last year, Darren Collison, has filled in more than capably and the Bruins have had a successful season. The tougher loss for the Bruins is 7-footer Ryan Hollison, leaving them thin at the post position in a Final Four otherwise dominated by big men. Hollison had a tough game last year against Joakim Noah and Al Horford, and UCLA’s Lorenzo Mata has the unenviable task of dealing with Horford’s elbows in his kidneys and Noah’s screaming in his ears this year.

The last time a team returned their starting five after winning the championship was towel biting Jerry Tarkanian’s squeaky-clean Running Rebels of 1991. That year, they beat the Blue Devils in a blowout and then continued their winning streak throughout the next season only to face Duke again in the national semifinals. Both teams returned their key players from the year before, and Duke ended UNLV’s bid for an undefeated season with a stunning win. Unfortunately for the Rebs, Larry Johnson was about 10 years too early for his three-pointer magic with the Knicks and his comically arrogant ‘LJ’ arm symbol that Bill Walton so dearly loved.

Certainly, this year’s scenario is similar to the Duke and UNLV rematch in 1992. One glaring difference – if blogs were around back in ’92, we wouldn’t see pictures of Larry Johnson in the same type of photoshop jobs that we’ve seen Joakim Noah subjected to. And we likely won’t see a “Taurean & Corey & Jo & Al” shirt similar to the one that celebrated UNLV’s team coming out of the Undrcrwn shop any time soon.

The key to this year’s game will hinge on the effectiveness of Bruin shooting guard Arron Afflalo. Last year, Corey Brewer was able to harass Afflalo into a 3-10 shooting night and no other Bruin was able to pick up the offensive slack. Brewer’s length and quickness promise to be a difficult task to overcome once again this year. The knock against Afflalo’s game when he was deciding to enter the draft last year was his size as a shooting guard and whether he would be able to get his shot off in the NBA.

If Afflalo is able to put together a strong offensive game, as he did against Kansas in the Elite Eight last weekend, his scoring combined with the strong Bruin defense is a winning formula. However, if he struggles like he did against Indiana in the 2^nd round, when he shot 2-11, the Bruins will struggle to put points on the board and their defense alone won’t be enough to beat Florida. Fellow wing Josh Schipp has showed that he can pick the slack with 16 points against Pitt in the Sweet Sixteen, and he is averaging just over 13 a game for the year. But my guess is that UCLA will need more than 15 a game from both of Schipp and Afflalo to keep pace with the Gators. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute was a revelation for the Bruins last year, but he hasn’t been able to increase his scoring after a year of experience. If the Bruins win, it’s going to be their guards that have the big games.

One thing UCLA can count on is their team defense. It’s unlikely that we’ll see Lee Humphrey and Taurean Green get the open looks on the perimeter that they did last week against Oregon. While Green burned Oregon point guard Tajuan Porter all game with deep 3s and open court layups, he’ll be facing the Pac-10’s defensive player of the year on Saturday night in Darren Collison. Collison has the foot speed to double down low in the post and get back out to Green to contest his jump shot if the ball is kicked back out to the perimeter. The Gators should be able to get ample shot opportunities down low with Al Horford going up against the thin Bruin frontline, but don’t expect to see Humphrey and Green wide open waiting for a kick-out. Ben Howland’s got a week to prepare for the Florida offensive sets and he’ll have his team prepared.

UCLA is also going to need Lorenzo Mata to stay out of foul trouble. The Gators can afford to have Noah or Horford pick up two fouls in the 1^st half because they’ve got 6’9” big man Chris Richard on the bench, but if Mata’s playing time is limited, Horford will have easy pickin’s with Bruin bench players Ryan Wright or Alfred Aboya.

Let’s hope that Mata doesn’t pick up his 2^nd foul in the first ten minutes and Afflalo is hitting his outside jump shots Saturday night so that I can enjoy my pizza this year.

Weekend Wrap-Up: March 26, 2007

With the quality of play at a high level across the country, it was a good weekend to be a college basketball fan. The Final Four teams all had to play talented opponents that may have beaten them had they played another game today. The actual games in sports rarely reflect the hype that is given to them, but viewers taking it easy on their couches on Saturday and Sunday afternoon had to have been pleased with the competitiveness of the Elite Eight games. In between breaking down cardboard boxes and hanging paintings on the walls after an apartment move, I was able to take in the games on a new couch. Finally living the good life that people always talk about.

We're now down to four teams, and the ACC has been shut out. With the other four power conferences represented next weekend, it’s clear that the ACC had a down year. The conference’s best team and lone representative in the Sweet Sixteen, UNC, was vastly inexperienced when it came to the postseason, and that lack of seasoning may have hurt them in the final 10 minutes against Georgetown. The Hoyas have played just as well as anyone in the past two months, and most of their nucleus was tournament tested after a Sweet Sixteen appearance last year against Florida. Georgetown had the talent level to compete with Carolina and a coach standing on their sideline that could match wits with Roy Williams.

What I found surprising about the Heels’ loss was that going back to the ACC tournament, they had been able to pull away from their opponents late in games. While UNC had the depth to support their up-tempo game, they had also displayed poise in the final ten minutes of their games and didn’t make the type of mistakes on offense that they made against Georgetown. In their previous four games, going back to the NC State game in the ACC tournament, Carolina’s opponents were able to match up their best five against the Heel’s best five. The deciding factor was usually that UNC’s opponents would run out gas towards the end of the game and were unable to execute as efficiently as they had in the first half.

Witness the game against USC on Friday night – with Taj Gibson holding his own down low and the USC backcourt making outside shots and playing solid defense, the Trojans held a double digit lead well into the second half. It was the continuous pressure that the Heels put on USC with their secondary fastbreak that lead to easy baskets that chipped away at the lead. Brandan Wright, who continued to impress with his ability to run the court, crashed the boards consistently on offense, and often was able to beat the Trojans down the court for an easy opportunity. And it wasn’t the case that he was leaking out early after a USC shot. He was actually boxing his man out down low for a defensive rebound, and then sprinting out after a teammate secured the rebound. A couple times I actually rewound my TIVO to make sure that my eyes weren’t deceiving me. Add to his ability to run the court his soft touch around the hoop, and he had been a consistent offensive force throughout most of Carolina’s games.

It had to be exhausting for opposing big men to guard him for 25-30 minutes. While many college and NBA players boast similar athleticism, it is Wright’s ability to finish that sets him apart. He can get up to grab an offensive rebound in traffic and finish in the air, and he can sprint out in the open court, make a touch catch, and finish at odd angles.

Amazingly, even with the foul trouble to Roy Hibbert, Georgetown was able to turn the tables on Carolina last night. Credit John Thompson with a great job in managing Hibbert’s minutes late in regulation. He was masterful in alternating Hibbert in and out of the game, and making sure that the big man was in the game when Georgetown was on defense.

Compare that to Thad Matta’s questionable job of handling Greg Oden’s minutes late in the game on Thursday night against Tennessee. Matta had Oden in on offensive possessions, but was taking him out of the game when the Buckeyes were on defense. Even though Oden had four fouls, you’d like to see one of the country’s best defenders guarding the basket with two minutes left. Luckily, Matta came to his senses and had Oden in on the final possession where he made the block on the final shot of the game.

With John Thompson’s former coach Pete Carrill looking on in the stands, the Hoyas played a steady and smart basketball game that would make any Princeton grad proud. The only thing missing in East Rutherford was a shot of Bill Bradley awkwardly exchanging a high five with an alumna wearing an orange baseball hat. It’s easy to exaggerate, but it seemed like every Hoya player was dually capable of making a back-breaking cut to the hoop for a lay-up and the slick bounce pass that lead to an easy basket.

Another testament to Thompson’s coaching and the intelligence of the Georgetown players was their persistence in playing to their strengths and looking to get the ball in the post on offense. We didn’t see their perimeter players start tossing up 3s from the perimeter in an effort to get back in the game. Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp did their best to get the ball to Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert in scoring position, and the discipline to do so paid off.

Other Observations from the Weekend:

1. Len Elmore marveled at the quickness of Al Horford’s spin move in the post against Oregon. After CBS showed the replay of one Horford bucket, Elmore claimed that the move was so quick that it left the Gator big man’s defender flat-footed. What Harvard Len failed to mention was that Horford swings a mean elbow that approaches Shaq-esque proportions when he makes the move. It’s the elbow into the kidneys of his defenders that leaves them flat-footed, not the foot speed.

2. This may be nit-picking with Greg Oden, and certainly was more warranted before his big 2^nd half against Memphis, but his effort troubles me. Bill Raftery noted a couple times that Oden will barely get across halfcourt on some Buckeye possessions, conserving his energy. The problem with that is that Oden is supposed to be and should be a beast on the boards. What good is it to have the next great big man when he’s not even in position to get an offensive rebound?

Oden’s idea of a pick on offense is to flail one of his arms in the direction of a defender, barely making contact. Both little things, and I’m definitely the last person to be handing out scouting reports to NBA teams, but it worries me.

3. Dick Enberg mentioned that Kansas big man Darnell Jackson wears number 32 in honour of his idol Magic Johnson. Given that Magic retired before the 1991 season and Darnell was born in 1985, he got the chance to see Magic play until he was 6. Maybe Dick was taking the a little artistic liberty or Darnell appreciates Magic’s post-playing career as a businessman, but there’s no way he remembers watching him play.

4. CBS showed a clip of Billy Donovan speaking to his team before last year’s championship game. Among the more inspiring messages from Billy – Florida had to ‘live in the moment’ because they’d ‘been through so much adversity together’. Truly innovative stuff. It’s a wonder that Noah, Horford, and Brewer chose to come back to Florida this season. I wouldn’t be able to take another season of listening to that garbage. But I guess they’d probably hear more of the same in the NBA so it’s lose/lose.

Sweet 16 - Quick Thoughts

It doesn't really need to be said, but tonight's first two games finally provided the type of excitement that makes the 2007 tournament so special. After a small percentage of the 1st and 2nd round games being were uncompetitive or lacking the drama we've been used to the last couple years, tonight has been a real treat to watch.

Quick thoughts:

1. Memphis center Joey Dorsey is by far the biggest and most athletic player when he's on the court, but think about this for a moment - his body type and size is very similar to Lebron James. For anyone that thinks the best college teams could compete in the NBA, that should shut the door on their argument. The biggest player on the court in tonight's game would be a small forward in the NBA.

I'm undecided about Dorsey's decision to sit on the bench after he fouled out without a jersey on. Where did his jersey go? Was it an ode to Gilbert Arenas? If so, I'm ok with it.

2. A&M ended up with the loss, but I think the play where Acie Law missed the layup on the home run pass late in the game illustrated how good a coach Billy Gillespie is. Without calling a timeout, his team immediately went to an inbounds play that they must have practiced in preparation for situations like in tonight's game. I'm sorry to see A&M lose, but give credit to Antonio Anderson for sinking the two foul shots for the win. Clutch.

3. How about the refs' decision to take over a full second off the clock after A&M's inbounds pass was deflected on the sideline? Where is the logic behind that? There's no way a pass deflected out of bounds that close to the sideline takes over a second off the clock.

My Take on Duke

Since Duke’s 1st round loss last Friday, many have been quick to jump on the bandwagon with their opinions of why Duke is going down the drain. Suffice to say, I can’t believe Duke President Richard Broahdhead let alone Coach K is pacing his wood paneled office and sweating from his forehead, wondering how he's going to fix the whole damn thing over the summer. Check a sports website this week, and along with the kenpom statistics being used to predict the Sweet 16 games, you’ll find an article breaking down everything that’s wrong with the Duke program. Apparently, even the ivy that adorns the Duke campus’s gothic buildings has been wilting since late Friday evening. 60 Minutes has sent one of their octogenarians on a chartered plane to check out this latest Duke scandal. And this time, the parents being interviewed will be even angrier. You do not want to fuck with the parents of a Duke student.

All that being said, I’m going to jump right on to the bandwagon. It may not stop for me, but I’ve been working on my fitness lately and I think I might be able to catch it when it swings by my neck of the woods. Why should I disagree with my favourite national columnists?

If we’re going to point out what’s wrong with the Duke program, let’s do it in a sophisticated manner, with easy to read numbered points. I’m not yet a good enough writer to put together a coherent 2,000 word column, and you readers are probably even less sophisticated than I am, so I’ll make life easy for everyone involved.

1. Recruiting

Every year when the basketball season comes to an end, we’re bombarded with the TV analysts casually mentioning which traditional powers are ‘loading up’ for next year and how many of their incoming recruits ate at McDonald’s the night before – sorry, played in the McDonald’s All-American game. Or the Jordan Classic All-Star game, or the Nike Summit game, or the Billy Packer Game that’s played in a barn in the middle of a cornfield in Iowa. The point is that these high school all-star games are becoming as ubiquitous as NCAA football bowl games. There’s too many to count, most of them are in places you’d rather never visit, and they all have meaningless outcomes. The other meaningless thing about them is that the players selected to play in them aren’t all that likely to become great college players.

The only time I can remember a team with a great recruiting class becoming successful in the short run was the Fab Five. And unfortunately, the hoopla over Chris, Jalen, and Juwan sparked the need for every subsequent top recruiting class to have a fancy little nickname.

So let’s see how this affects Duke. This year, they brought in top 100 players Lance Thomas, Gerald Henderson, Brian Zoubek, and Jon Scheyer. Google ‘2006 Duke recruiting’, and you’ll find that the class was considered top 15 in the nation by the recruiting ‘experts’. In fact, one of the leading recruiting websites, Rivals.com, called Brian Zoubek, and I quote, ‘a rarity in college hoops – a skilled 7-footer’. I could make all kinds of easy jokes about what he was skilled at, but I’ll refrain. The only thing the mentioned players will be remembered for from this year is blood – Henderson’s elbow that caused Tyler Hansbrough’s nose to flood, and Jon Scheyer’s bloody eye that forced him to come out of Duke’s 1st round game against VCU.

My feeling is that recruiting became too easy for Duke. They know that through Coach K’s commercials and the team’s success, they have incredible national visibility. They don’t need to hit the road to scout and find obscure players that no one else knows about. All they have to do is look at the top 5 high school seniors by position in the country, send them a cute little brochure, and expect that at least 3 of the players will commit to play.

So why is this bad? Well, the top-ranked players don’t always turn out to be as good as they were hyped to be, or they become complete stiffs (Shavlik Randolph). The other detriment to the Duke program is that they miss out on the hidden gems that end up at other programs. This year’s ACC player of the year, Jared Dudley, was a virtual unknown to most of college basketball as a high school player, and only got to BC after one of their recruits transferred to Minnesota. The long-limbed and athletic LSU defenders that shut down JJ Redick last year were most likely not even on the Duke scouting radar.

2. Assistant Coaches

Another thing we incessantly hear every college season is the lauding of the Duke coaching staff – the loyalty of Johnny Dawkins staying in Durham while he’s had many opportunities to be a head coach elsewhere, Dick Vitale getting teary-eyed talking about Wojo and Chris Collins staying at Duke and keeping the Duke tradition alive. One thing that isn’t mentioned too often – the Duke guys that leave to become head coaches after being Duke assistant coaches ARE TERRIBLE.

Tommay Amaker was fired from Michigan last week after he failed to get them to the NCAA tournament during his tenure there. Amaker was offered the Michigan job despite severely underachieving at Seton Hall, his first head coaching job. Another Duke guy, the well-coiffed Quin Snyder, left the Missouri program after numerous recruiting violations surfaced. Despite leading the Tigers to 4 NCAA appearances, the success dried up in a hurry once Snyder had to deal with the guys he recruited himself.

There’s a reason why we see Johnny Dawkins every year sitting next to Coach K. It’s his security blanket. If he left to go anywhere else, he’d fail miserably and the secret would be out. Instead, he can keep a cozy lifetime job on the Duke bench tracking turnovers and pass deflections with the only downside being getting spit on by Krzyzewski when he does some ‘coaching’. The problem with the Duke system is the same problem that Major League baseball teams encountered recently. I credit SI’s Tom Verducci with this thought, as he noted that until a few years ago, many MLB front offices were loaded with dead weight – ex-players that weren’t contributing much but could rely on an easy paycheck and an office with a view of the field.

Ironically, it is a former Duke player that did not assist Coach K who s now having the most success as a head coach. Jeff Capel got the head Oklahoma job after building credibility with successful seasons at Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth.

3. Coach K Himself

No one can question Duke’s regular season success in the past decade. But more often than not, that success has no translated to the postseason. Granted, the Blue Devils made the Final Four in 2005, but in the last 6 years, Duke has lost in the Sweet Sixteen 4 times and once in the 1st round, despite finishing the regular season ranked 1st twice in those years, and ranked 3rd in another.

Last year, JJ Redick could barely get his shot off against LSU in the loss that ended Duke’s season. He was clearly frustrated at his inability to get shot off the dribble, yet he continued to drive to the hoop against quicker and more athletic defenders. There was no change in the Duke strategy to get better shots from Redick or get offense from other players. Is that a complete indictment against Coach K as a coach? No, but he didn’t make necessary adjustments to get a win. In fact, of Duke’s early losses in the past 6 years, Coach K has been beaten by Michigan State in 2005, Kansas in 2003, and UConn in the Final Four in 2004.

If losing to Tom Izzo, Roy Williams, and Jim Calhoun in the tournament the last few years doesn’t eat at Coach K, it should. Given that Sweet Sixteen games allow for at least 3 full days of preparation and practice, Coach K has been unable to prepare his team and gameplan well enough to defeat his peer’s in the upper echelon of college coaches.

Tom Izzo is well-known for getting the most out of his players. His championship team led by Mateen Cleaves was talented, but their calling card was hard-nosed defense and relentless rebounding. When he’s had less talented teams, he is able to get results. This year’s Spartan team got to the 2nd round of the NCAAs after losing three players to the NBA off of last year’s squad.

Now I don’t want to go over the edge with the angle that Duke is falling apart. Obviously, making 5 trips to at least the Sweet Sixteen in the past 6 years is a standard that any college team would be happy with. The point is that given the Duke brand and their regular season success, they’ve fallen short in the postseason. In the same way that the New York Yankees consider their season a failure if they don’t end up with the World Series trophy, a Duke season is less than a success without a Final Four appearance. And that’s when all of us come riding in on our high horses to point out what’s wrong with Duke.

Weekend Wrap-Up: March 19, 2007

I'm one day late with the highlight of your week, the current cult favourite but soon to be nation-wide craze, the Weekend Wrap-Up. Unless you’re a Tar Heel fan, things didn’t go so well for you over the weekend. The ACC came into the 2007 NCAA tournament with 7 teams, the high for a conference. Now, after the 1st and 2nd rounds are complete, only UNC will be returning home to practice in preparation for a game later this week. I can’t say that I’m surprised. Aside from the Heels, this year’s edition of the ACC lacked more than one elite team. Most of the competition on Wednesday and Thursday nights during the season was due to good, but not great, talent levels among the conference’s second tier of teams. It made for an exciting regular season and a tight race for the conference championship, but the ACC’s usual presence on a national scale wasn’t going to be felt.

Obviously, the NCAA selection committee felt the same way, and the ACC team’s seeding in the tournament reflected their thoughts. After UNC’s 1 seed, the next highest seeded teams were the fourth-seeded Maryland and Virginia. This time a week ago, many analysts were staring at a bracket that had Virginia facing a possible 2nd round matchup against Tennessee, and Maryland was looking like the upset special in the 1st round against Davidson. As the SEC showed over the weekend, they were pretty strong this year. Of the 16 teams waiting to play Thursday or Friday night this week, 3 are from the SEC – Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. Given those results, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Virginia fell to the Volunteers. It was the ACC’s second or third best team against the SEC’s.

While Virginia fell victim to a team from a power conference, Maryland and Virginia Tech lost to a couple mid-majors. It says something about college basketball that Butler and Southern Illinois can advance to the Sweet Sixteen after defeating two ACC teams, and there is little to no fanfare about it. Not even 5 years ago, those losses would have been considered monumental upsets and ESPN classic would have been cueing up their production studio to play the games for the next 5-10 years. In all fairness, both the Terps and the Hokies were flawed teams. Virginia Tech was a mystery all year, sweeping the Tar Heels, yet losing to Clemson at home when the ACC championship was on the line. Despite being an experienced team, the Hokies seniors Jamon Gordon and Zabian Dowdell hadn’t made it to the tournament in their careers. Butler on the other hand, was an experienced tournament team, and had a guard with similar talents to Dowdell and Gordon on AJ Graves.

My thoughts on the ACC's lone remaining team and Boston College:

UNC

The Heels advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and probably got a lucky break with Texas losing to USC yesterday. The Longhorns and Kevin Durant loomed as a possible opponent and everyone wearing Carolina Blue will be happy to see Durant pondering his NBA future today, rather than licking his chops at a matchup against fellow freshman and projected lottery pick Brandan Wright.

North Carolina got a phenomenal effort out of Tyler Hansbrough against Michigan State in the 2nd round. Perhaps I was too hard on him last weekend and his protective mask really was hindering his aggressiveness, because he was back to attacking the basket this weekend rather than trying to draw contact and settle for a trip to the foul line.

Although UNC has been lauded for their depth this year, only two bench players got more than 10 minutes against the Spartans. Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard came off the bench to combine for 6 points in 13 and 17 minutes, respectively. The work was left to Hansbrough and jet-quick point guard Ty Lawson, who both played 36+ minutes.

I don’t see the shortening of the rotation as being a detriment to the Heels chances in the next rounds. Roy Williams used a revolving door approach during the season, so the Tar Heel starters should all have relatively fresh legs, and aside from Hansbrough’s broken nose, they are all healthy.

I don’t want to discount Hansbrough’s production, but Lawson remains the most important Heel. His ability to counter any made basket by the opposition with a fastbreak allows the Heels to stop any momentum their opponents might gain with a made shot. If he gets in foul trouble, the Heels have the capable Bobby Frasor backing him up, but Frasor is certainly not the playmaker that Lawson is.

Boston College

Two plays stand out to me from the BC/Georgetown game –
Jeff Green’s put-back dunk with 7 minutes to go.
Patrick Ewing Jr’s reverse dunk after being fouled with less than 3 minutes to go.

Both plays were spectacular. Both were made by two of the Hoya’s big men, who combined with Roy Hibbert, form the most dominating front line in the country next to Florida. But the two plays were less about the Georgetown talent and more about the fact that no one on BC could have made either of those plays. I don’t fault the Eagles at all for losing. For 37-38 minutes they were able to trade baskets and defensive stops with Georgetown and were on the verge of a possible upset. But when it mattered most, the Georgetown big men had the physical talents to make the decisive plays. On the surface, there was no way that BC should have been in the same gym with John Thompson’s team. Here was the giant Roy Hibbert, and the multi-talented Jeff Green going up against John Oates and Tyrelle Blair, a guy that had played his first two season of basketball at tiny Loyola College in Chicago. Could anyone reasonably expect Oates and Blair to shut down Hibbert for the entire 40 minutes?

There’s a reason the Hoyas came into the game having lost only one game since January 17 – they’re really good. They’ve got a combination of size and talent that typically isn’t seen on the college level. Going up against fellow projected 1st round pick and center Aaron Gray in the Big East championship, Green and Hibbert were dominant in leading Georgetown to a blowout victory.

BC’s potential fatal flaw since the suspensions of Sean Williams and Akida McClain was going to be their depth, or lack thereof. But against the Hoyas, BC went up against a team with a similar rotation. Taking a look at the box score, you’ll see that only six Hoyas played more than four minutes in the game. While BC’s Big 3 did play the full 40 each, there was no excuse for the BC players to let Hibbert get loose balls that were low to the ground late in the game. Hibbert was no slouch either when it came to time on the court, playing 34 minutes, impressive for a man his size, and even more impressive were his 2 fouls. By comparison, Oates played 16 minutes and committed 4 fouls while Blair played 24 minutes and committed 3.

As disappointed I was to see the careers of Sean Marshall and Jared Dudley end on Saturday, I was happy to see that they went out fighting. After a mostly miserable final 3 weeks to season, Dudley turned in a vintage performance with 19 points, 8 boards, and 4 steals. His basketball IQ was highlighted a few times by Jay Bilas, regarding Dudley’s ability to make reads in the halfcourt offense and get himself open looks for himself and his teammates. Here’s hoping that an NBA team will notice Dudley’s talents and he can carve out a 10-year career for himself. After many doubted Craig Smith’s pro prospects, it would be nice to see Dudley join Smith in the NBA as another ‘surprising’ rookie.

Marshall had a tough shooting night, but without his 40 minutes, BC wouldn’t have been able to stay as close as they did for as long as they did. Say what you want about his shot selection, his experience and floor game was a huge step up from anyone else on the BC roster. He gave BC 4 great years and deserves to be remembered as one of the best players from the Al Skinner era. If one of next year’s incoming freshmen gives us a career like Marshall’s we’ll be pretty happy.

Elsewhere in the ACC

It’s nice to see the ACC’s three representatives winning their first games in the NIT. Often, a bubble team that doesn’t get into the Big Dance will bow out early from the NIT in the 1st round. Human nature.

It’s a pretty small condolence for Clemson and FSU to be playing in the NIT, but it at least gives their seniors a chance to extend their careers for a few games. Both NC State and FSU have advanced to the quarterfinals while Clemson takes on Ole Miss in the 2nd round tonight.

I think NC State will be able to build on their late season success heading into next year, despite the graduation of senior point guard Engin Atsur. Their big men combo of Ben McCauley and Brandon Costner should be tough to handle for everyone next season.